B of C JULY RATE HIKE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
Canadian Monthly GDP (April) - June 29, 2018
Canadian real GDP rose 0.1 per cent in April with 12 of 20 industrial sectors posting growth in output. The manufacturing sector was a main contributor to overall growth in real GDP, expanding its output by 0.8 per cent in April while offices of real estate agents and broker was up 0.3 per cent, the industry's first positive growth in 2018. With today's release, we are tracking second quarter real GDP growth in Canada at about 2 per cent.
Given solid economic growth and inflation firming around the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target, the likelihood of a July rate increase from the Bank of Canada is fairly high. However, the threat of a damaging trade war will loom large over the Bank's ultimate decision.