FALL BANK RATE RISE UNLIKELY
Canadian Inflation - July 17, 2019
Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 2 per cent compared to the same time last year, a deceleration from 2.4 per cent in the prior month. Excluding the impact of lower energy prices, the CPI was up 2.6 per cent year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation were also up in June, averaging a little over 2 per cent. In B.C., CPI increased by 2.6 per cent in June compared to a year ago, marking the second highest provincial gain behind Manitoba.
With inflation sustaining above 2 per cent, the Bank of Canada will almost certainty remain on hold at its next meeting in September, particularly given a strong second quarter of real GDP growth. The Banks decision will be complicated by a possible easing of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, though a period of diverging monetary policy between the US and Canada remains likely.