BoC Rate Hike Next Week Unlikely
Canadian Retail Sales and Inflation - October 20, 2017
Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), registered 1.6 per cent in the 12 months to September, up from 1.4 per cent in August. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation were largely unchanged, averaging 1.6 per cent. In BC, provincial consumer price inflation was 2.0 per cent in the 12 months to September.
Canadian retail sales declined 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis in August but were 6.9 per cent higher year-over-year. Sales were down in 8 of 11 retail sub-sectors and excluding the impact of higher gas prices and rising motor vehicle sales, the retail sector was down 1.3 per cent. In BC, after five straight monthly increases, sales fell 1 per cent on a monthly basis, but were up more than 10 per cent compared to September last year.
Given that incoming economic data has been signalling a slowing of the economy and inflation is still essentially treading water below the Bank's 2 per cent target, not to mention the tightening of mortgage regulations by OSFI, we expect that the Bank of Canada will stay on the sidelines at its upcoming October 25th meeting.